The US dollar fell below the 100 mark. The base metal market saw domestic performance outpace overseas. SHFE tin rose nearly 3%. Gold prices surged to new highs. [SMM Midday Review]

SMM April 11 News: In the metal market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals all rose, with SHFE copper up 0.92%. SHFE tin increased by 2.73%, and SHFE nickel rose 1.54%. SHFE aluminum edged up, SHFE lead gained 0.81%, and SHFE zinc climbed 1.12%. Additionally, alumina fell 0.21%, lithium carbonate dropped 0.57%, silicon metal declined 0.84%, and polysilicon decreased by 1.99%. In the ferrous metals series, most prices fell, with iron ore down 1.14%, rebar down 0.19%, HRC down 0.71%, while stainless steel rose 0.2%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.78%, and coke dropped 1.65%. In overseas markets, as of 11:45, most base metals declined. LME tin rose 0.81%, while LME nickel fell 0.22%. LME lead increased by 0.13%, LME copper dropped 0.25%, LME aluminum fell 0.4%, and LME zinc edged down. In the precious metals sector, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 1.91%, hitting a new historical high of $3,241.5/oz; COMEX silver increased by 1.52%. Domestically, SHFE gold surged 3.54%, reaching a new historical high of 763.62 yuan/gram; SHFE silver rose 1.94%. Tariff tensions have spurred demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals, with strong central bank demand, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased inflows into gold ETFs also driving this year's gold rally. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for European container shipping fell 4.28% to 1,767.6 points. As of 11:45 on April 11, some futures midday quotes: April 11 SMM Metal Spot Prices Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 90 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to 50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 74,680 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 74,580 yuan/mt, down 355 yuan/mt from the previous day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for seven consecutive days, with low arrivals being the main reason. Despite the drop in copper prices and inventory, suppliers had to actively lower prices to sell due to the large price spread between futures contracts, yet market transactions remained poor. Click for details Macro Front Domestic: [China Semiconductor Industry Association: "Integrated Circuit" Origin Determined by Four-Digit Tariff Code Change Principle, i.e., Wafer Fab Location as Origin] The China Semiconductor Industry Association issued an urgent notice on the "Origin" determination rules for semiconductor products on April 11. According to the General Administration of Customs, the origin of "integrated circuits" is determined by the four-digit tariff code change principle, i.e., the wafer fab location is considered the origin. It is recommended that "integrated circuits," whether packaged or not, declare the origin based on the location of the wafer fab when importing. [SZSE: Formulating Plans Around Key Areas to Remove Obstacles for Medium and Long-Term Capital Entry] The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) organized a medium and long-term capital investment strategy meeting in Beijing on April 11. Deputy General Manager Tang Rui stated in his speech that recent US tariff policies have caused global stock market turbulence, reminding us that medium and long-term capital is the "ballast" and "stabilizer" for maintaining stable and healthy market operations. Meanwhile, as A-share policy, fundamentals, and market structure continue to evolve, new opportunities are emerging for medium and long-term capital entry. To better serve medium and long-term capital entry, the SZSE is formulating relevant work plans, focusing on key areas such as product supply, environment optimization, and service coordination, to help remove obstacles for medium and long-term capital entry. [Central Bank's Open Market Net Injection of 28.5 Billion Yuan] The central bank conducted 28.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with the operation rate at 1.50%, unchanged from previous. As no reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 28.5 billion yuan was achieved. April 11 Interbank Foreign Exchange Market RMB Central Parity Rate: 1 US dollar to 7.2087 yuan US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 1.02% to 99.91, hitting a low of 99.64. Due to lower gasoline and used vehicle prices, US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, but mild inflation readings are unlikely to persist, with the US dollar weakening across the board and the dollar index falling below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023. Tariff policy uncertainty has heightened concerns about global and US economic recession risks. The market is betting on the US Fed restarting the interest rate cut cycle in June. According to CME FedWatch data, the market now expects a 44% probability of a rate cut at the May 6-7 meeting, up from 14% a week ago. Global investors will reassess US policy prospects, economic health, and the dollar credit system. (As of 11:47, US dollar index trend) Other Currencies: In the Asian trading session, the US dollar slightly rebounded against the yen, currently trading around 143.55. Previously, due to unclear US economic prospects and heightened trade concerns, the US dollar weakened overall, driving investors towards the safe-haven yen. The Bank of Japan's hawkish stance has provided additional support for the yen. The market generally believes that the BOJ may maintain a tight or at least not rush to ease monetary policy in the future, in stark contrast to expectations of significant US Fed rate cuts. Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu said early Friday: "Exchange rates should be determined by the market, but excessive volatility will negatively impact the Japanese economy." The market interpreted this as Japan possibly preparing to address the economic impact of rapid yen appreciation, but also suggesting that the current yen strength is not intentionally guided by Japan, but rather a natural flow of global safe-haven funds. (Huitong Finance) Macro: [People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng Attends and Chairs ASEAN+3 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting: Discussed the Impact of US Tariff Policies on Global and Regional Macroeconomic Situation] People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng attended the ASEAN+3 (10+3) Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from April 8 to 9, 2025, and chaired related discussions as the co-chair of the 10+3 financial cooperation mechanism. The meeting discussed the impact of US tariff policies on the global and regional macroeconomic situation, improving the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) mechanism and the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), and reached a series of consensus on deepening regional policy coordination and strengthening the regional financial safety net. The meeting unanimously passed the legal arrangements for RMB contributions under the CMIM mechanism. The finance and central bank deputies of China, Japan, and South Korea held a meeting during the same period to exchange views on the economic situation and regional financial cooperation. Xuan Changneng highlighted that in the face of rising global uncertainty, the People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable financial market operations and consolidate the momentum of economic recovery. Additionally, Xuan Changneng held bilateral talks with South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister Choi Ji-young, Bank of Korea Deputy Governor Kwon Min-soo, and Monetary Authority of Singapore Deputy Managing Director Leong Sing Chiong, exchanging views on the impact of global uncertainty on various countries. (Cailian Press) Today, the UK February GDP monthly rate, UK February industrial output monthly rate, UK February industrial output annual rate, UK February goods trade balance - seasonally adjusted, UK February seasonally adjusted trade balance, Germany April CPI annual rate preliminary, Switzerland March consumer confidence index - seasonally adjusted, China March M2 money supply annual rate (April 11-17, time uncertain), China March social financing scale - year-to-date, China March new RMB loans - year-to-date, US March PPI annual rate, US March core PPI annual rate, US April University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary, and other data will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting: 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at the New York Economic Club; ECB President Lagarde speaks at the Eurogroup press conference; 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 0.38% and Brent down 0.3%. Oil prices are set to decline for the second consecutive week, pressured by concerns over economic growth and oil consumption. ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said in a report on Friday: "Ongoing concerns about global economic slowdown are weighing on oil prices." He added that the bank predicts that if global economic growth falls below 3%, oil consumption will drop by 1%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that tariffs are casting a shadow over the global economic outlook and may severely drag down oil prices in the coming months, while also lowering oil demand forecasts through 2026. It is now expected that global oil and fuel demand will increase by 900,000 barrels/day this year compared to last year, reaching about 103.6 million barrels/day. The EIA now expects the global benchmark Brent crude price to average around $67.87/barrel in 2025, significantly lower than the previous forecast of $74.22/barrel. (Webstock Inc.) Spot Market Overview: Large Price Spread Between Futures Contracts Forces Suppliers to Lower Prices, Overall Transactions Poor [SMM South China Copper Spot] Near Contract Rollover Date, Spot Premiums/Discounts Drop Sharply [SMM North China Copper Spot] Behind the Sharp Rise and Fall: The Debate on 'Black Swan' and 'Gray Rhino' in the SHFE Tin Market [SMM Analysis] [SMM Brief] Iron Ore Prices Fell Sharply This Week, Expected to Rebound Next Week Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view~